![]() ![]() The Greens, who held a small lead in the polls back in the spring, are now at around 15 percent. Next up is the CDU and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), 1 which together have seen their polling numbers fall into the low 20s as Laschet has received negative reviews for his performance in debates and on the campaign trail. The SPD has been on the rise since late July and now leads in the polls with just around 25 percent, thanks in part to Scholz’s status as the most popular choice among German voters to be the next chancellor. Most polling averages show a tight race with a highly fragmented vote across Germany’s seven notable parties. However, there is a small chance that Annalena Baerbock of The Greens, a left-leaning, environmentally conscious party, could also lead the next government. In all likelihood, though, the next chancellor will come from one of Germany’s two major parties: either the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) helmed by Olaf Scholz, or Merkel’s party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), now led by Armin Laschet. And while the leader of the party that wins the most seats often ends up as chancellor, that’s not always the case. ![]() That means the next government, like every one in Germany since World War II, will likely be a coalition of at least two parties - and quite possibly a third. The race to replace Merkel appears to be very uncertain, too, because no one party looks likely to win a large plurality of seats, much less a majority. Those results will determine who leads Germany’s government, and importantly, that individual won’t be long-time Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is stepping down after nearly 16 years in charge. And on Sunday, Germany will go to the polls to decide the makeup of its parliament’s lower chamber, the Bundestag. First we had the California recall election, then Canada’s parliamentary election this past Monday. It might be an off-year election cycle in the U.S., but September has been full of high-profile elections.
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